October 29, 1999
Contact: Norman Clifford, director of forecasting at KU's Institute for Public Policy and Business Research, (785) 864-3701.
LAWRENCE -- If current economic trends continue, Kansas residents can expect to see continued low unemployment but slower growth in jobs and personal income in 2000, according to a study published by the University of Kansas.
Norman Clifford, director of forecasting at KU's Institute for Public Policy and Business Research, presented the findings of the Forecast for 2000 study of the Kansas economy at the first Governor's Economic Innovation Summit on Friday, Oct. 22, on the KU campus.
"Although overall job and personal income growth are expected to be slower in 1999 and 2000 than in 1998, forecasted rates of growth are still strong relative to average growth in the 1990s, which overall has been a strong period for the Kansas economy," Clifford said.
Kansas Gov. Bill Graves and CEOs from eight major corporations based in Kansas met at the summit and discussed ways to keep the state competitive in the ever-changing national and global markets.
While the report concludes that the Kansas economy is still on an upswing, it found that growth in several categories is much lower than in previous years.
The forecast is included in the Kansas Economic Outlook, which is published four times a year. The quarterly forecast is an activity of the Kansas Econometric Modeling Program at KU's Institute for Public Policy and Business Research. The program is funded by the state of Kansas.
Highlights
-- The unemployment rate is expected to continue decreasing from 3.8 percent in 1998. The rate is expected to drop to 3.4 percent in 1999 and rebound slightly to 3.5 percent in 2000.
-- The number of jobs in Kansas is expected to grow 2.2 percent in 1999 and 2.0 percent in 2000. It rose 3.5 percent in 1998.
-- Personal income growth is expected to increase 4.5 percent in 1999 and 4.3 percent in 2000. It rose 5.6 percent in 1998.
-- Real personal income is expected to increase 3.0 percent in 1999 and 2.3 percent in 2000. It rose 4.8 percent in 1998.
-- The manufacturing of durable goods is expected to grow 0.3 percent in 1999 and 0.2 percent in 2000. It rose 5.5 percent in 1998.
-- Service sector job growth is expected to increase 2.8 percent in 1999 and 3.2 percent in 2000. It rose 5.4 percent in 1998.
-- State and local government employment accounts for a higher fraction of total employment in Kansas than in the nation as a whole.
-- Trade accounts for nearly 22 percent of total Kansas employment.
-- The construction and manufacturing sections have shown strong employment growth in the 1990s.
-- Nine metropolitan counties have accounted for all of the population growth in the state during the 1990s. Both personal income and employment have grown faster in these counties than in medium-sized and small counties.